One Mission Bay, a beacon of modern living in San Francisco's Mission Bay, presents a fascinating case study in real estate dynamics. This article offers an in-depth analysis of the building's pricing trends since its inception, focusing on the average price per square foot each year, notable sales, and the impact of market forces on property values.

One Mission Bay: Reflecting the Pulse of the Market

One Mission Bay stands as a microcosm of San Francisco's real estate market, encapsulating the fluctuations and trends that define urban property dynamics.

Yearly Analysis: Pricing Trends and Market Forces

2016-2017: The Early Days

• 2016: The market was finding its footing. A 4th-floor unit (#412) sold for $899,000, averaging $1,172 per square foot.
• 2017: A year of growth. The average price per square foot was approximately $1,113, with a 5th-floor unit (#520) selling for $895,000.
• Year-over-Year Trend: Positive growth, aligning with the booming Mission Bay market.
• Market Comparison: The building was just entering the market, and specific trends are hard to discern due to limited data.

2018: Rising Aspirations

• Total Sales: Steady, showing continued interest.
• Market Expansion: A surge in value, especially for higher floors. An 8th-floor unit (#820) sold for $1,150,000, averaging $1,430 per square foot.
• Average Price Per Square Foot: The year's average of around $1,430 reflected a robust market.
• Year-over-Year Trend: Consistent growth, though slightly below the expected 8-10% annual appreciation.
• ‍Market Comparison: Good performance, but slightly lagging behind the explosive growth of the broader Mission Bay market from 2012-2017.

2019: Stability Amidst Growth

• Total Sales: Maintains a healthy number of transactions.
• Consistent Demand: The market showed resilience. A 9th-floor unit (#918) sold for $1,012,000, averaging $1,319 per square foot.
• Total Sales: Maintains a healthy number of transactions.
• Market Maturity: The average price per square foot for the year indicated a stable market.
• Year-over-Year Trend: Growth is evident, but still not fully reaching the expected annual appreciation rate.

2020: Pandemic and Market Resilience

• Total Sales: A decline due to the pandemic, affecting demand. All data beyond 2020 is being based of significantly less total sales than expecation.
• Pandemic Impact: The market held strong. A 9th-floor unit (#912) sold for $1,680,000, averaging $1,316 per square foot.
• Resilient Pricing: The year's average price per square foot demonstrated the building's robustness.
• Average Price per Square Foot: Shows a slight dip or stagnation.
• Year-over-Year Trend: Negative impact due to the pandemic, deviating from the expected growth trajectory.
• Market Comparison: The building's performance reflects the broader market downturn, especially in downtown areas like Mission Bay.

2021: Recovery and High-Value Transactions

• Market Recovery: A year marked by high-value sales. A 15th-floor unit (#1506) sold for $1,690,000, averaging $1,333 per square foot. The expectation for a 15th floor unit just years prior was north of $1,800,000, however.
• Elevation Premium: The year's average price per square foot highlighted the value of higher floors.
• Year-over-Year Trend: A slight rebound, but still affected by the pandemic's aftermath.
• Market Comparison: Mirrors the slow recovery in the broader market, particularly in high-density areas.
• Delayed Sell Out: The developer still has units available for purchase, when initially expecting the building to be fully sold out by 2019.

2022-2023: Adjustments and Challenges

• Strategic Sale: In 2022, a 12th-floor unit (#1206) sold for $1,482,000, about $1,169 per square foot, a strategic sale at $150,000 less than its original purchase price to expedite the sale.
• Year-over-Year Trend: Stabilization, but the growth rate is still below the expected 8-10%.
• 2023 Stagnation: The building faced challenges with high interest rates, making it difficult to sell units at their initial premium prices. The average price per square foot in 2023 reflects this market stagnation.
• Average Price per Square Foot: Likely decreased due to market conditions.
• Year-over-Year Trend: Negative impact due to high interest rates and market conditions.
• Market Comparison: The building's performance is heavily influenced by the challenging market conditions, particularly for units in buildings with high HOA fees.

The Bigger Picture: Size vs. Price

• Floor Level Impact: The data consistently shows higher floors fetching higher prices, though market forces have introduced variations on all floors throughout the building and surrounding buildings.
• Market Evolution: The pricing trends, especially when analyzed per square foot, offer a nuanced understanding of the challenges and realities at One Mission Bay. The general condominium market downtown peaked between 204-2018, only to steadily fall off after the massive downtown market correction during the pandemic years.

Conclusion

One Mission Bay's journey through the real estate market of San Francisco's Mission Bay area is a narrative of resilience, strategic adjustments, and the realities of economic forces. It serves as a crucial case study for understanding the complexities of urban real estate markets, highlighting the interplay between luxury, location, and economic trends.

If you are looking to buy or sell in the building, text me to get started.

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